Jul 21, 2012 at 10:44 PM
A question: why did Nibali agree to rejoin the peloton after making it up to the break the other day? I realize this would have caused the peloton to chase like maniacs, so maybe such a tactic would have been futile - but why not at least give it a shot? None of his attacks were making a dent - he was finally away (not by much but still) - so why cash it in just to give Valverde his shot at the stage?Because Sky would have turned themselves inside out to chase them down between the descent and the next climb. The break would have to do the same to stay away. Yes, at the size of the break they surely outnumbered Sky, but then their legs would have been blunted for the rest of the day. Same goes for Nibali; he would have had to take long pulls to justify his presence and then Sky would almost certainly catch and then drop him.
I think that he used his better descending skills to test the waters, so to speak. If it had been raining all the way down, he probably could have gained a few minutes, and then if htere were crashes and/or disarray in the peloton, he would have profited. But as his lead was small, the roads suddenly dry, the sky relatively clear, Sky was going to have an easier time.
Yes, he could have promised the stage to whomever rode with him, but chances are nobody in that break liked those odds. Valverde was the best-positioned rider in the break. He had two teammates. If those four guys (3 Movistar, Nibali) rotated, maybe they could have gotten others, but maybe not.
And if Nibali stayed when others wanted him to go, I'll bet the others would have sat up. And if they sat up, then their teams would wait until Sky caught Nibali, and then it would have been another free-for-all, and the guys in the break didn't want that.
This sort of thing happens every few years in a major stage race, where a favorite works his way into the day's breakaway from those low in GC. THey often beg the guy to sit up.
