Kissena Forum Archive

Milan San Remo MSR

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First, how is it possible we don't have a MSR thread? More importantly WOW what a race.
Didn't see it.  And my VPN is caught by RAI so I can't watch the final 100km replay.

What did you love?

Part of me wanted to see Sagan steal it after being written off.  But Stuyven did what more racers should be doing.  I loved his comments post race about how he knew if it came down to a sprint, he'd finish between 5th and 10th, so he reckoned that even if it was a 10% chance of succeeding, it was worth the risk.  
Holy crap. If you want a super detailed and insightful analysis of what happened right and wrong at MSR check out Spencer Martin's analysis. I assume rest of his sub stack may also be worthwhile

https://beyondthepeloton.substack.com/p/milano-sanremo-positioning-on-the
That's a great assessment , I found MVDP incredibly frustrating to watch( for fantasy team reasons) ,consistently out of position , it seemed he was cooked at one point 
mugwump said:
Didn't see it.  And my VPN is caught by RAI so I can't watch the final 100km replay.

What did you love?

Part of me wanted to see Sagan steal it after being written off.  But Stuyven did what more racers should be doing.  I loved his comments post race about how he knew if it came down to a sprint, he'd finish between 5th and 10th, so he reckoned that even if it was a 10% chance of succeeding, it was worth the risk.  
Glad you asked. I loved that up both the Poggio and the Cippresa it was anybody's race. Felt like there were twenty guys who could win it, and the closer to the finish the more it seemed like that. Absolutely loved seeing Sagan glue himself back on to the lead bunch - this seems to be a race that punishes the favorites so this could have been his year. Good grief there was even a moment it looked like Caleb was going to attack on a climb but thought better of it. MVP really did play fast & loose with his positioning but it never seemed to cost him to move back up 20 places... Stuyven deserved this one in spades. He played his anonymity perfectly and let the favorites game each other out of it.

WVA getting back on the podium; Sagan out of nowhere back in top 10 form... wow.

GVA, WVA, MVP, Sagan, Caleb, JA... talk about a rogues gallery of contenders!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fO96iObvWgs
A few things.

Completely loved Caleb, who aimed and trained specifically for this race, brought the fitness and preparation and 100% delivered on his strategy.

That level of pro is inspiring and one that we can potentially bring to so many levels of our lives. 

Then loved Jasper's attack. All or nothing.

Nothing I do approaches what these guys can do, that said, I've done exactly that long attack hundreds of times -- where the only way I'll squeeze a result out of the group is to blow it up way earlier than anyone. Not sure it ever got me a win, but probably got me 5th or 8thish rather than 14ish plenty of times. 

Worth mention, Jasper benefited big time from Søren Kragh Andersen bridging up. But how fun to see the long sprint attack work!

Caveats for doping.
He made an interesting point about Wellens 


Worth mention, Jasper benefited big time from Søren Kragh Andersen bridging up. But how fun to see the long sprint attack work!



And the guts to sit behind him until 150 to go was impressive.


this is not suspect this is not suspect this is not suspect this is not suspect this is not suspect this is not suspect 
will give some credit to the dropper post and pros executing on their plan.

still… this is not suspect this is not suspect this is not suspect this is not suspect 
Sadly the original “droppah post guy” interview seems to have left the internet. Hopefully dirt wire will fix their broken link.
eloy said:
will give some credit to the dropper post and pros executing on their plan.

still… this is not suspect this is not suspect this is not suspect this is not suspect 

My own MSR quandries.

1 A dropper post didn't win the race.  While Mohoric really pushed it on the descent, it was his tolerance for risk and MVdP's unwillingness to chase that got him the gap.  That first venture off road sure looked like it was of his own choosing to have the others back off.  My feeling with the posts is that when you have to pedal right after a corner, there's a loss of pedal power--It would be like switching to a smaller bike with a more forward seat post--that I have trouble imagining that the fractional gain isn't offset by the fractional loss, at least for a descent where you're pedaling most of the time. 

2. MVdP probably made the victory happen.  Not only did he let the gap open on the descent, he also sat up when Wout swung off in the last kilometer.  I think Wout was referring to this in his post-race interviews, obliquely, referring to how some people were using MSR for training.  

3. Matthews might be onto something about Mohoric getting an advantage from the motos in that at least a few times, it looked like Mohoric was drafting off the motos, but maybe they slowed him down in the turns.  

4. Pogacar didn't have the goods. Maybe his power isn't enough on shallow climbs, or the distance got to him.  Either way, his attacks seemed like a pale imitation of what we saw at Tirreno.  He claimed that things would have been different if he had attacked into the tailwind; I have my doubts considering that he didn't get away on any of his moves. Roglic also seemed like a shadow of the guy from all but the last stage of Paris-Nice.

5. The crash on one of the Poggio uphill hairpins probably helped Mohoric as well.  I think Demare was gapped then.  He had Pacher with him and, if together, that was an extra hand to help with the chase.

6. Mohoric was better placed on the Poggio than he lets on. He was, at worst, fourth over the top.

7. Wonder if Sagan would have made the split on the Cipressa if not for his bike issues.  There, too, if he had been there with Turgis, that could have tipped the race.    
@mugwump
Pojacar was the rider following , MVDP was behind him.
Not that i want to see the growth of dropper posts , he clearly tried out , with and with out 
The race was decided as it is every year , with a split second hesitation on the flat after the decent 
I have no issue at all with the post. If it makes descending safer, more power to us all. Sagan does seem a little cursed these past couple of years. Would be fun to see him in the mix again.
@mugwump
Pojacar was the rider following , MVDP was behind him.
Not that i want to see the growth of dropper posts , he clearly tried out , with and with out 
The race was decided as it is every year , with a split second hesitation on the flat after the decent 
just re-watched.  At 4.3km, Pogacar is ridden off.  But then Pog pulls off and MVdP soft-pedals at the front, looks down, and Wout has to come through a tight space, slowing him. 

Maybe the dropper post gave Mohoric confidence;  I think the benefit was mental.  And, has been pointed out elsewhere, Mohoric seems to have a habit of vocal misdirection.  
Preparation and planning won this race. 

Mohoric planned to attack in the downhill, and in forging that plan, tried and discovered that a dropper post helped, so he used it. Less explicitly, I am sure he also planned and trained specifically to survive the last climbs and specially the last few flat kms to the line.

Once you are all in, you should be all in. Moto drafting, risks every corner, etc... full gas balls to the wall. Milan San Remo has been around for 113 years. Let's F**ckng Go!

We saw something similar with Caleb Ewan last year. He forged a plan, trained to execute the plan, and delivered. It was only good enough for 2nd for Caleb, but good enough for the win in 2022 for Mohoric

Full on suspension of disbelief. Caveats for doping.
Also , this contradicts what your saying about MVDP.

“I raced to win, as always. Mathieu van der Poel did too, but the rest quickly thought of the podium,” Van Aert said. “That's their right, but I'd rather go down fighting. There was not much cooperation. Some may come here to train, but I came to win.”
um
Also , this contradicts what your saying about MVDP.

“I raced to win, as always. Mathieu van der Poel did too, but the rest quickly thought of the podium,” Van Aert said. “That's their right, but I'd rather go down fighting. There was not much cooperation. Some may come here to train, but I came to win.”
Maybe by that he meant that MvdP skipped pulls to save himself for the sprint.  Because MvdP did the best of the favorites though he was outsmarted by Turgis.  

From where I sit, MvdP was shirking when he should have been pulling.  And I'd be surprised if Wout and his team didn't see it that way as well.  


um
This moment lasted maybe 300 miliseconds... he was going down the hill faster than everyone, including the motos. This was the typical took the corner faster than the moto and almost crashed into it, we've seen it hundreds of times, in fact, he likely slowed not to hit the thing. The moto accelerated right away on the straight. 

I think Mohoric is suspect, sorry not suspect, this is not suspect, this is not suspect, this is not suspect. Respectfully, if there's cheating, moto drafting is not it.
@eloy

In order to keep this polemico going, I'll add:

"They suggest that, for a rider in a time trial at 54km/h, the following time savings can be achieved:

– 12.7 seconds per kilometre when drafting at 2.5m
– 5.4 sec/km at 10m
– 2.6 sec/km at 30m"

https://cyclingtips.com/2019/06/drafting-behind-race-motos-provides-a-bigger-advantage-than-first-thought/

I'd guess Mohoric was descending at 70+ kph.  Just 1km of sitting 30m behind a moto at 54 is worth 2.6 seconds.  The winning margin was two seconds.   

And I'd also guess that the moto saved Yates at Paris-Nice this year.

(I think Mohoric is suspect, sorry not suspect, this is not suspect, this is not suspect, this is not suspect. )
@mugwump said "That first venture off road sure looked like it was of his own choosing to have the others back off."
Just saw this again , he clearly had his head down and wasn't looking where he was going.  

@Eloy Ok, I'll bite [respectfully]. So do you think Matthews is a whiner then? a) he wouldn't stick his neck out unless the rest of the peloton were mumbling about it, and b) he has a little bit more experience than you and me motor-pacing camera bikes. From my own experience you're getting maybe 10% at 10M. Mohorible got mo' free lunch.

So I had a thought.

What might Strava reveal?

Bad news.

Mohoric's descent in 2022 was 3:30, 19 seconds off the fastest recorded Poggio descent.  And slower than Mohoric's 2020 Poggio descent by some 12 seconds.  

Kwiatkowski was the fastest on Strava in 2022, with 3:14, tied for the 4th fastest descent.  Mohoric's 3:30 puts him tied with the 108th-fastest descent.  

https://www.strava.com/segments/1638354?filter=overall

And it's not really that fast.  Simon Clarke, who set the KoM in 2021 averaged 35.2mph


Dam motorbike wasn't going fast enough
Headwind.
Thanks all for the inspiration.

I wrote it it up for my site.  

A few things that I uncovered as I was looking for links.  

To use the dropper post, he had to use the Merida climbing bike rather than his normal aero bike.  At an average speed of 45+ kph for 6.5 hours, that probably added ups to a good bit of extra effort, and just the round post cost him. Even for the time he was solo, 4.5km, it probably cost him a few seconds.  He also went with 180/160 rotors rather than his usual 160/140.  It might explain why he lost traction on the rear wheel twice in that last tricky corner.

https://jralong.com/2022/03/24/a-dropper-post-did-not-win-san-remo/
How does the rotor size impact traction?
Have a feeling he grabbed what he usually does brake wise but got more than he bargained for with the larger rotor and had a small lock up