Uran for podium 100%! He is a good descender, I believe he will be able to hold his ground on Thursday. Tomorrow is about fending off Lopez and Yates. 

irrespective of Bernal's numbers what I have seen is that on every hard mountain day in the finale there is Bernal and/or Carapaz for Ineos, Pogacar for UAE, Landa on his own, so too Adam Yates G.Martin for Cofidis, Rolland for B&B, Qunitana & Barguil for Arkea, Alaphilippe for DQS, maybe someone for CCC, likewise FDJ, usually a few of EF and Movistar, Richie P for Trek, a couple for Sunweb, blah-blah and SIX Jumbo riders. Seven if you include Tony M towing the bunch up the first 2k of the mountain.

Then 24 hours after shredding the peloton and towing the remnants up a mountain .... they do it all again.

I'm with @Jules

Jules said:

Bernal has no reason to fib about his best numbers ever. In fact all the advantage is for him to do the opposite and say he's having an off day. If his "best" gets him dropped like a stone not only do his competitors have nothing to fear but his job prospects look like shit.

Regardless; I smell a big, hairy, stinky rat.

Wut? The tour has a long tradition of top riders using press statements to intimidate and play with opponents. Bernal saying his numbers are great when they weren’t, but he still was in contention, is a perfect tactic and fits this old tradition perfectly.

ian ellis said:

 SIX Jumbo riders. Seven if you include Tony M towing the bunch up the first 2k of the mountain.

Then 24 hours after shredding the peloton and towing the remnants up a mountain .... they do it all again.

I'm with @Jules

They are definitely strangling this race and have an insane team presence at every significant moment. They also seem to have 7 capable, uncrashed riders. From what I understand, they're rotating key helpers for each stage and their placing kind of shows that.

If you look at the results, Tom D is about 5 min down (not super unusual these days to have two team leaders), Sepp is 35min down, Wout and Bennett are ~1:15hr down, Gesink ~2hrs and Martin is a whopping 4 hrs down. They definitely lost most of the time during the mountain stages, not necessarily to crashes or cross winds in the flat stages. You can't be in the finale of every stage but also be 1-4 hours down on GC at this point in the Tour. Even Wout looks like someone hands him a piano as soon as he's called off. I think guys like Bennett, Gesink and Martin sitting up for the final hardest 10-30min of every stage or taking a lesser role on certain stages makes a difference in their ability to do it again the next day.

I'm curious if their time spread between riders is more or less than other dominant teams? 

Bernal will no start today.

eloy said:

Bernal will no start today.

Oh looks like the plot thickens and my speculation isnt so wild now. 

eloy said:

Jules said:

Bernal has no reason to fib about his best numbers ever. In fact all the advantage is for him to do the opposite and say he's having an off day. If his "best" gets him dropped like a stone not only do his competitors have nothing to fear but his job prospects look like shit.

Regardless; I smell a big, hairy, stinky rat.

Wut? The tour has a long tradition of top riders using press statements to intimidate and play with opponents. Bernal saying his numbers are great when they weren’t, but he still was in contention, is a perfect tactic and fits this old tradition perfectly.

I think that's backwards. To say you feel bad when you have a great day makes sense. To say you feel great while you're having a bad day makes sense. To say you felt great after you had a shit day and lost time... that sounds like a confession.

How much do we think not having someone like G or Froome who understands the pressure and the mind game that is the TdF came into play? Bernal is still a super young guy and between being the sole leader for Ineos and the defending winner, that's a stupid amount of pressure. I'd say there's a good chance he said he had great numbers or was feeling great to try to calm some of the whispers, but in realty needed a more experienced teammate who's been there to let him know that it's not the right move

He has kwia though. He's a domestique who's been through all the wins in the past years. He could easily Shepard the young Bernal and give him wise words when it's needed. 

True, but I'd have to assume the pressure gap and media attention between even the best domestique and the defending winner must worlds apart

Matt Budofsky said:

How much do we think not having someone like G or Froome who understands the pressure and the mind game that is the TdF came into play? Bernal is still a super young guy and between being the sole leader for Ineos and the defending winner, that's a stupid amount of pressure, I'd say there's a good chance he said he had great numbers or was feeling great to try a calm some of the whispers, but in realty needed a more experienced teammate who's been there to let him know that it's not the right move

To be honest I think zero. Maybe it could have helped Carapaz snag a stage with some savvy race-reading but at the end of the day there is a motor that has to climb with the best between 5.9 and 6.5 w/kg day after day and that motor isn't on Sky this year. Motivation matters between the elite of the contenders, it is not going make a dropped rider into a contender.

If extra motivation was all it took guys like Voeckler and Alaphillipe would have both won the race. Hard to argue they could have wanted it anymore.

For sure experience would have helped with things like not getting caught out in the crosswinds, or not sending guys back (Ineos) to ride for a guy who is 7 minutes down on GC but when the road tilts up it's pure performance.

I wasn't talking motivation so much as just handling the media. Personally, I don't think the collective we should really give Bernal saying he felt great any credence (likely just posturing like Eloy said)

Matt Budofsky said:

I wasn't talking motivation so much as just handling the media. Personally, I don't think the collective we should really give Bernal saying he felt great any credence (likely just posturing like Eloy said)

Yeah, it just seems weirdly true to me. Like something he might blurt out because of a lack of savvy. I can't think of any advantage to him for saying it.

I agree with Jules on this one. Pulling back the view, the patterns are similar to other major doping waves of the sport. We can try to explain individual stage/rider/situational edge cases or tactics or marginal gains or whatever but there's a straightforward doping precedent that exists that can explain what is going on right now.

I'm still enjoying watching the race, but even during my relatively short fandom since the lance years there has been at least 2 major doping scandals that stripped podium winners of their yellow jerseys and race wins.

@jules he was likely trying to make himself feel better. That's a pretty common sports pysch idea. Instead of saying oh blah blah I feel like trash, you spin it to be a positive thing however you want. The goal of that is to convince yourself more importantly than anyone else that you feel good. 

cpulvidente said:

@jules he was likely trying to make himself feel better. That's a pretty common sports pysch idea. Instead of saying oh blah blah I feel like trash, you spin it to be a positive thing however you want. The goal of that is to convince yourself more importantly than anyone else that you feel good. 

That's possible, I suppose.

Ah, the evergreen doping questions.

mugwump said:

Ah, the evergreen doping questions.

I took a look at Pogacar's numbers for the pyrenees again.

I didn't realize that he seems relatively heavy for a modern Tour contender.  5'9", 145.5lbs, at least according to TrainingPeaks.  I have no idea if the weight is accurate, but if he's lighter than advertised, the w/kg numbers are even higher.  All the same, it could be he's got a huge lung capacity (LeMond was alleged to be about that height and weight at his peak, but then again, so was I):  LeMond's VO2 was supposed to be in the 90s.  Considering that Roglic looks beefier than Pogacar, I have to wonder how much power he's putting out to go with the efforts.  And I should add the caveat that having seen a stage depart in 2005, that most racers look much skinnier standing still.  

There are three variables that have to fit in the envelope to get any specific W/kg number.

• V02 Max
• Weight
• Metabolic efficiency

(Keep in mind the very high V02 max numbers from cross country skiers are due to them using more muscle mass during their efforts)

Jules said:

eloy said:

Jules said:

Bernal has no reason to fib about his best numbers ever. In fact all the advantage is for him to do the opposite and say he's having an off day. If his "best" gets him dropped like a stone not only do his competitors have nothing to fear but his job prospects look like shit.

Regardless; I smell a big, hairy, stinky rat.

Wut? The tour has a long tradition of top riders using press statements to intimidate and play with opponents. Bernal saying his numbers are great when they weren’t, but he still was in contention, is a perfect tactic and fits this old tradition perfectly.

I think that's backwards. To say you feel bad when you have a great day makes sense. To say you feel great while you're having a bad day makes sense. To say you felt great after you had a shit day and lost time... that sounds like a confession.

You say whatever. Usually the opposite of what's happening or planning. 
Reality: numbers are low, got dropped. To the press: "Was feeling great, best numbers ever. I'm still a contender"

ah to be a fly in the bahrain merida team bus at the end of that stage

eloy said:

Jules said:

eloy said:

Jules said:

Bernal has no reason to fib about his best numbers ever. In fact all the advantage is for him to do the opposite and say he's having an off day. If his "best" gets him dropped like a stone not only do his competitors have nothing to fear but his job prospects look like shit.

Regardless; I smell a big, hairy, stinky rat.

Wut? The tour has a long tradition of top riders using press statements to intimidate and play with opponents. Bernal saying his numbers are great when they weren’t, but he still was in contention, is a perfect tactic and fits this old tradition perfectly.

I think that's backwards. To say you feel bad when you have a great day makes sense. To say you feel great while you're having a bad day makes sense. To say you felt great after you had a shit day and lost time... that sounds like a confession.

You say whatever. Usually the opposite of what's happening or planning. 
Reality: number are low, got dropped. To the press: "Was feeling great, best numbers ever. I'm still a contender"

I'm going with a big nope on that. You get dropped, you just got dropped. Nobody gives a shit about your numbers, they're obviously lower than they need to be. Pat yourself on the back all you want, but if your "best day" is getting your ass handed to you, then you're not a contender, imho.
#ymmv

I am sure you understand the point: You are not a contender, but what you tell the press is that you still are, while at the same time letting them know "did all I could do"

eloy said:

I am sure you understand the point: You are not a contender, but what you tell the press is that you still are, while at the same time letting them know "did all I could do"

I totally get what you're saying but I don't agree. It's one thing for a sprinter to lay on the old "I could have won except for #excuse" because it's plausible. For a climber - best power of your life? Nice job skippy but you clearly don't belong leading a grand tour. That's just my take and I can't remember the last time I disagreed with you so maybe it's the 3d printer fumes that are finally getting to me

not sure there's really a need to insist, totally ok if we don't agree on this.

For me, the takeaway, learned decades ago discussing Greg Lemond vs Bernard Hinault, with my dad, uncles, and cousins, maybe even before I rode bikes, was simply: "Do not trust a word of what contenders tell the press during the Tour" every word is 100% completely measured and calculated. The statements (and miss statements) are part of the race. 

-- I mentioned that Bernal looked specially dejected after Puy Mary. More so that anyone else that lost time or struggled up that thing. We won't know what actually happened, but I just don't buy Bernal put his best numbers. It doesn't fit.

He likely knew then he was in real trouble, not "I can't win", or even "I can't podium" trouble, more like real, wtf I don't think I should even be riding bikes now kinda trouble. 

Jules said:

If extra motivation was all it took guys like Voeckler and Alaphillipe would have both won the race. Hard to argue they could have wanted it anymore.

There's an extraordinary moment in 'Slaying the Badger' where the french coach says that you can't replace fitness with suffering. After a certain point, you can't choose to suffer more. 

Such a core part of tour strategy.

I think RaboVisma have been building their core rider and support team competency over the last couple of years to achieve this result. In previous years they have peaked slightly too early, made mistakes in the team car, not quite had the right level of domestiques etc. I'd like to think that this tour represents the culmination of X number of years of planning and a great deal of hard work from the riders. Or maybe it is the juice. 

On Bernal, he is so young that to expect consistency from him at this stage is probably unwise. With the recent successes of other young riders in big stage and 7 day races it maybe easy to forgot that at this point in his development he may lack the endurance/resilience both mentally and physically that older riders have developed. It's also a distinct possibility that like many young sports stars who achieve success early on, the wear and tear on a young body can be devastating once they get into their 2nd or 3rd year as a full time pro. Happens in football, cricket, rugby (sports with poorly defined/mandated rest periods for players) all the time.